Storm, Strikes and Shipping Fears Send Crude to Multi-Week Highs
DUBAI, October 10, 2026 — Global oil prices notched fresh multi-week highs on Friday as a punishing one-two punch of Middle East geopolitical risk and a Gulf of Mexico hurricane squeezed supply from both sides of the market, with traders bracing for more turbulence ahead.
Brent crude futures rose 44 cents, or 0.42 per cent, to settle at $104.72 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 36 cents to close at $91.85, market data showed. The settlement capped a volatile week in which Brent jumped more than 4 per cent in a single session on Thursday and finished the week up 2.41 per cent, according to figures cited by regional media.
Hurricane Slams the Shut-In Switch
The immediate trigger for Friday’s gains was Hurricane Isaias, which roared toward the northern Gulf of Mexico and forced energy companies to shutter more than 70 per cent of US offshore crude production, state media reported.
“Brent crude rose as renewed Middle East tensions coincided with disruption to US Gulf of Mexico production from Hurricane Isaias,” Nick Stadtmiller, chief economist and group head of research at Emirates NBD, was quoted as saying.
Analysts estimate about 63 per cent of US Gulf oil output has been shut in ahead of the storm, with roughly 500,000 barrels per day of capacity at risk. The US Gulf coast hosts critical offshore production sites, refining infrastructure and export terminals, and forecasters warned of heavy rain and flash flooding that could disrupt refinery operations.
Risk Premium Locked In
Even as the hurricane lifted prices, crude had traded lower earlier in the session after US President Donald Trump said Washington was holding “productive discussions” with Tehran and ruled out new attacks on Iran before next month’s midterm elections.
The pullback proved short-lived. “Ongoing fighting between Saudi Arabia and its allies against the Houthis are keeping the geopolitical risk in oil markets elevated while shipping in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz continues to be threatened,” analysts Soojin Kim and Edward Bell of MUFG were quoted as saying.
Houthi attacks on airports in Saudi Arabia’s southern region and Riyadh this week, alongside strikes on energy infrastructure, have kept a firm floor under prices. Trade sources said shipping costs through the region have surged as insurers price in the danger, while independent tracking showed transits through the Strait of Hormuz — the conduit for roughly a fifth of global oil consumption — running at a fraction of pre-crisis levels.
What It Means for Consumers
For motorists and businesses across the Middle East and beyond, the rally threatens to push fuel costs higher just as inflation pressures were beginning to ease. In a bid to calm nerves, President Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the United States and global markets immediately.
Still, analysts warned the risk premium is unlikely to unwind soon. With Hurricane Isaias bearing down on refining capacity and regional tensions unresolved, crude markets are expected to remain on edge into next week.
