WASHINGTON/TEHRAN — 10 October 2026. US President Donald Trump said Washington is holding “productive discussions” with Tehran and ruled out any American attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, even as the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force and the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed to normal commercial traffic.
The remarks, carried by regional media on Saturday, amounted to the clearest signal yet that diplomacy has returned to the centre of the months-long confrontation between Washington and Tehran — a standoff that has already pushed oil prices to multi-week highs and choked off most shipping through the world’s most critical oil corridor.
Tehran Reviews Seven-Day Hormuz Plan
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is studying the American response to its proposed seven-day plan to reopen the strait, and will reply within days, Gulf News reported. Under the proposal, the United States would take de-escalatory steps on days one through five, with normal navigation resuming on day six.
Tehran’s demands, diplomats said, include an end to hostilities, the release of frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of restrictions on its oil exports, and the termination of the US naval blockade that has strangled Iranian crude shipments for weeks.
IRGC: Strait Closed Until Blockade Lifts
Any reopening remains a distant prospect. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy warned that the strait will stay closed until the blockade is lifted and that approaching vessels “will be targeted”, regional outlets reported.
The warning highlights a split inside Iran. President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly called for a negotiated solution provided Washington drops “pressure and threats”, but the military brass has kept up the pressure — Iranian state media said the IRGC struck the large LPG carrier NV Sunshine south of the strait for using what it called an “illegal route”.
The Moscow Diesel Deal
In a parallel development, Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin under which Moscow will supply more than four million tonnes of diesel to the United States and global markets. The first deliveries — 300,000 tonnes in October and 500,000 in November — begin immediately, with Washington waiving sanctions on Russian energy exports through next April to facilitate the shipments.
Trump said diesel prices, which have doubled since the Iran war began, would be “coming down and fast”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the deal, warning that Russian proceeds from the sales would fund further attacks on Ukraine. The Kremlin separately said Trump welcomed Russia’s role in efforts to settle the Iran confrontation.
Markets Watch the Calendar
For energy markets, the timing is no accident. The midterms are four weeks away and fuel costs have become a defining campaign issue, with Brent crude settling near US$105 a barrel as shipping through the strait runs roughly 75 per cent below normal, according to Gulf News.
Traders and regional officials will now be watching whether Tehran’s response to the seven-day plan, expected within days, turns the current pause into something more durable — or whether the blockade and the strikes keep the Gulf on a war footing.
