WASHINGTON — October 23, 2026. US President Donald Trump accused Iran on Thursday of fabricating reports of tanker attacks and naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz to drive up global oil prices ahead of next month’s US midterm elections, injecting a new political charge into the months-long confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump claimed Tehran was staging “fake hits, mines, and everything else” on commercial shipping as an election ploy. “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the US Midterm Election,” he wrote, insisting that more crude was now moving through the strait than before the conflict began.
Trump cites shipping data in election-year oil row
The president pointed to reporting in The Wall Street Journal, citing data from shipping-analytics firm Kpler, showing that the volume of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz and transhipped in the Gulf of Oman averaged about 14 million barrels per day in the week through October 18 — roughly 82 percent of the pre-war level. When alternative pipelines and other routes are included, total Middle East crude flows averaged about 24 million barrels per day, above the 23.3 million recorded before the war.
Trade sources note, however, that the figures do not fully match Trump’s claim: the data show flows through the strait itself still below pre-war levels, with the recovery driven by alternative routes. Trump did not directly address that distinction in his post.
IRGC claims seven vessels hit
Trump’s accusation came after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that seven commercial vessels had been struck in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. State media reported that four tankers conducting ship-to-ship oil transfers in the northern Persian Gulf caught fire on Wednesday, and three others struck naval mines west of the strait.
Those claims have not been independently verified. Iran has not identified the vessels or their owners, and the UK Maritime Trade Operations body has issued no corresponding incident reports, shipping monitors said.
Protest crackdown and nuclear warnings
In the same post, Trump accused Iran’s government of continuing to kill protesters, writing that “75,000 protestors lie dead in less than seven months” — a figure he offered without a source — and called it “a truly evil regime.” He closed by repeating his red line on Tehran’s nuclear programme: “IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND THEY WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON.”
Speaking to reporters at the White House before departing for a campaign rally in Iowa on Thursday, Trump acknowledged the confrontation had come at a political cost. “There’s a price to pay, which I knew immediately when I did it,” he said, “but we can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.” He also suggested US forces had inflicted heavy damage on Iran and “may do it a little bit further,” keeping the threat of fresh strikes on the table.
Markets react as midterms approach
The row erupted as Brent crude topped $113 a barrel on Thursday, its highest since May, with US crude above $100. Analysts said the rally reflected a growing geopolitical risk premium as markets weigh the threat to Gulf energy infrastructure, with Libya shutting a pipeline valve to the Zawiya port compounding supply fears.
Energy strategists said gasoline prices have become a political liability for Republicans ahead of the November 3 vote, adding that Trump’s remarks appeared aimed at countering the narrative that American strikes and the Hormuz blockade are behind the pump-price pain. Whether the claims calm markets or deepen the war of words, traders said, will depend on what happens in the strait itself in the coming days.
